Cornell Insider

At the end of a fairly eventful pre-midterm election night here in America, we are left with much to think about. First, and most obviously, are the much-needed and celebrated GOP victories in the governor’s races in Virginia and New Jersey. Both races occurred under fairly similar circumstances; in Virginia, a Republican had’t held the governorship since 1997, while in New Jersey, a Republican had not won any state-wide election of any kind since that same year. The apparent political climates in the two states right before the election, however, were not as similar. Governor elect Bob McDonnell had been holding a fairly steady double-digit lead in the polls against his opponent R. Creigh Deeds for a few weeks, so most political analysts expected this victory for the conservative Republican. The tale of New Jersey is a bit more interesting. In the summer months, Christie owned a consistent double-digit or near double-digit lead in polls. When fall came around, however, this lead shrunk massively, with most polls putting the election in a dead heat.  This had less to do with anything Republican challenger Chris Christie or incumbent John Corzine did than with the sudden emergence of independent candidate Chris Daggett, who in some polls received as much as 20% of support, despite only getting 5% on election day. In the end, however, exit polls show that independents broke towards Christie in double digits and led him to victory.

Unfortunately for conservatives, the race for the NY-23 seat was not as well-omened. Despite having statistically significant advantages in polls and a 50-47 lead in the exit polls, Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman lost very closely to Democrat Bill Owens. Should Hoffman have won, it would be the first time in decades that a third-party congressman would hold a seat in the U.S House of Representatives (oddly enough, the last person to do so was also from the Conservative Party of New York).This race gained national attention after Republican Party candidate Dede Scozzafava withdrew from the race amidst sagging poll numbers and endorsed Owens, a move decried by many conservatives in the party. A conservative third party candidate in congress would certainly have been nice, but you can’t win them all sometimes.

Other interesting races:

Mayor Michael Bloomberg wins his third term as mayor of New York, but only by about 4 points as opposed to his 20 point blowout in 2005.

Medical marijuana benefits are expanded in Maine (no surprise).

Bill allowing gay marriage in Maine is narrowly repealed by the voters (big surprise, the aftermath of this may be very interesting to watch).

The Atlanta mayoral race is going to a runoff.

It’s never easy nor especially prudent to draw far-reaching conclusions for such limited elections, but if one has to be drawn, it would be this: the Republican Party certainly isn’t dead, and the more “conservative” side of it is excited and making some heavy noise despite its narrow defeat in NY-23. For 2010, the only wise thing to say is that the political environment for Democrats in every state will not be as friendly as it has been in past years.

One last thing: here are the exit polls for New Jersey, courtesy of Fox News

And here is Virginia