Earthquake in 2010!
Posted by Cornell Insider Staff on July 15, 2009
Peter Ferrara is predicting a Republican trouncing in the 2010 Congressional elections. It is a long article, but here is the gist of his argument:
Next year would be a Republican year just because it is a midterm election with a Democrat in the White House. But because federal, state and local Democrats have been so extreme left, that is why this time the election is likely to be an earthquake. Normally, people who are unhappy with the incumbent President come out to vote in droves during midterms, while people who are happy are not as motivated because they think all is fixed by the reigning President who is not even on the ballot during midterms. But these effects are going to be so greatly exaggerated this time for several reasons.
Democrat ultra-left policies are going to motivate even more disaffection and voter anger than usual in a midterm. This is why Rasmussen’s focus on strongly disapprove versus strongly approve is so important. Obama is already 8 points down on this calculus and dropping fast just 6 months into his first term. Where is it going to be after another 16 months?
Moreover, the conservative Republican vote was down in the last election because these voters were so disaffected by the moderate liberal Republican standard bearer John McCain. But these folks are going to be ultramotivated to vote next year, and probably contribute and volunteer as well, because of the prevailing Democrat ultraleftism that so alienates them. At the same time, Obama inspired a maximum left-wing vote last year. But a lot of those voters are going to be unmotivated next year when they realize after two years that Obama did not show up to pay their house and car payments, or arrive at their door to deliver new kitchen appliances and cabinets at taxpayer expense.
I wrote about this same issue on my blog, except I was arguing that the 60 seat Democratic supermajority in the Senate will be the straw that breaks the Democrat’s back. In my opinion, regardless of whether the supermajority translates to greater legislative leverage, perceived control translates to full voter accountability. The supermajority in the Senate will make the Congressional Democrats fully accountable to the voters in 2010. Unless all economic indicators are pointing up, the federal deficit is cut in half, and Obama scores a number of other political victories on the domestic and international fronts, I predict that the balances will be tipped in the Republican’s favor in 2010.
Two questions still bother me: 1) Will the Republicans be able to pull off a large enough victory to actually tip the balances of legislative power? 2) What happens if the economy actually experiences a full recovery by November 2010?